The rollout of the federal gun buyback program has proved to be a disaster for the Liberal government. Only 26 per cent of Canadians believe that a buyback program can most effectively reduce gun crime, in contrast to the 55 per cent that say federal efforts should focus on cross-border illegal smuggling. Following the 2020 Nova Scotia attacks, the Trudeau government created a list of banned assault-style firearms. Seeking to provide a compensatory option for affected businesses and individuals, the government launched the Assault-Style Firearms Compensation Program (ASCFP) 

Over 2,500 makes and models are eligible for compensation from the ASFCP, many of which are used by Indigenous communities for sustenance hunting. The amnesty period for owners of prohibited firearms ends on October 30, 2026, where failure to dispose of or deactivate their firearms risks criminal liability for possession. With the deadline approaching, critics question the likelihood of the program reducing gun violence and the government’s ability to enforce it.  

In October 2025, Cape Breton, N.S., hosted the federal pilot project. The federal government provided approximately $149,760 to the Cape Breton Regional Municipality for the buyback, with officials confident that around 200 banned firearms would be collected by the end of the six-week timeline. Following the program’s end, only 25 firearms had been turned in by 16 people. This would signal future rates of compliance with the program upon its federal launch. 

The early failure has only served to grow the critics advocating against the furtherance of the ASFCP.  

Continued survival of the initiative has been marred by non-compliance from over half of the provinces and two territories. Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Yukon and the Northwest Territories have all withheld support for the program. Alberta and Saskatchewan have gone a step further, introducing legislation that would hinder the administration of the ASFCP. This legislation proposes to offer fair market appraisals of any banned firearm seized, seeking legal means to resist the federal initiative. 

Within Ontario, the Ford government has delegated enforcement to the OPP and municipalities, many of which have stated their indifference to the program. Within the GTA, the York and Durham Police Services have stated their position not to actively pursue the initiative, opting for other local initiatives geared toward community safety. In Northern Ontario, Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie and Thunder Bay’s Police Services have all opted out of enforcing the measure, citing inadequate funding and direction from the federal government.  

Despite these challenges, Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree is attempting to power through with the ASFCP, holding that he does not see logistical issues with the roll-out. This comes after a leaked recording in September, where Anandasangaree was recorded saying, “I just don’t think municipal police services have the resources to do this,” to a peer. 

The federal government has allocated $742 million for the program’s entirety, with $248.6 million set aside specifically for compensation. Québec remains the largest provincial supporter of the measure, having signed a $12 million contribution agreement and promising the cooperation of Québec’s provincial police, the Sûreté du Québec. However, on February 26, Ian Lafrenière, Minister of Public Security, stated that Québec’s provincial firearms registry will not be used to identify owners, nor will firearms be confiscated. 

Furthermore, businesses have been active participants in the ASFCP, with over 12,000 prohibited firearms collected and $22 million in compensation provided. However, the compliance rate among individuals on a wider scale is yet to be determined.  

An estimated 136,000 firearms were expected to be covered by the $248.6 million budget. Currently, more than 47,000 firearms have been declared as the timeline draws to a close. However, estimates place the number of prohibited weapons in circulation from 150,000 to 518,000. 

Ontarians contributed the highest amount of firearms declared, with 19,176 declared as of March 19, with British Columbians in second at 10,962. This stands, as British Columbia continues to grapple with the violence inflicted in Tumbler Ridge on February 10, resulting in the deaths of nine, including the perpetrator.   

It remains uncertain whether the tragedy that unfolded in Tumbler Ridge will prompt the Canadian public to increase cooperation with the program or whether more provinces will opt for non-compliance after seeing the program’s political and logistical conflicts. 

What is clear, however, is that the engagement and compliance by provincial ministers and gun owners have been much lower than what the Liberal government originally hoped for or expected.